专家观点

China’s September PMIs Return to Expansion Amid Firming Recovery

CHINA TEXTILE LEADER-国际资讯2026-10-22 16:35查看原文 ↗

✦产业研判

产业概括：9月制造业PMI回升至50.1，重回扩张区间

2026年9月中国制造业PMI为50.1，较8月上升0.3个百分点，连续第二个月回升并重回扩张区间；非制造业商务活动指数为50.2，上升1.2个百分点。国家统计局解读称制造业景气改善，分析人士预计四季度制造业将保持平稳温和扩张，理由包括央企约2万亿元六大基础设施网络投资等重大项目加速落地。

流通方向上行强度弱周期短期

关键观察变量

后续制造业PMI能否持续位于50以上、非制造业商务活动指数扩张持续性、央企基建投资落地节奏、纺织服装内需零售数据、产业用纺织品订单变化

判断边界原文仅提供宏观PMI数据及分析人士对四季度的定性展望，未披露纺织服装行业细分数据、批发市场客流或订单情况，不能据此推断纺织服装产业链已出现实质性回暖，也不能将宏观扩张直接等同于批发市场经营改善。

2026/10/22

China's manufacturing activity was back in expansion territory in September while non-manufacturing activity rebounded markedly, with both above the boom-bust line, official data showed, adding to signs of a firming recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector stood at 50.1 in September 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from August and returning to the expansion zone, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signifies contraction. The manufacturing sector's business climate improved further in September, with the PMI rising for a second consecutive month, said Huo Lihui, a chief statistician with the NBS.

Looking ahead, China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady and moderate expansion in the fourth quarter, said Wen Tao, an analyst with the China Logistics Information Center, citing accelerated implementation of major projects, including about 2 trillion yuan of planned investment by central state-owned enterprises in six major infrastructure networks this year.

The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.2 in September, up 1.2 percentage points from August, with both construction and services returning to expansion. (Xinhua)

Source: CHINA TEXTILE LEADER Express

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