WTO Blog | Data Blog - Fertilizer trade impacted by Strait of Hormuz conflict FR Français ES Español Trade in urea and phosphate fertilizers has been severely disrupted by the conflict in the Persian Gulf, according to data analysed by the
FR Français ES Español Trade in urea and phosphate fertilizers has been severely disrupted by the conflict in the Persian Gulf, according to data analysed by the WTO Secretariat. Certain economies in Africa and Asia are particularly vulnerable to resulting fertilizer shortages and price hikes. Opening of the Strait of Hormuz - a key channel for fertilizer trade - will in due course contribute to easing trade frictions and restore stability to global markets. What happened - and why does it matter? The outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf in February 2026 has severely disrupted global trade. Fertilizer trade has been among the sectors most affected. With fertilizers (see Box 1) among the critical inputs farmers rely on for production, the disruption has raised concerns that farm yields could be compromised, with potential knock-on effects for food prices and global food security. Box 1: Fertilizers are key to supporting farm productivity Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are primary nutrients, each with a specific role: nitrogen drives vegetative growth, phosphorus supports roots and reproduction, and potassium improves overall plant health and resistance. Nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea and ammonium nitrate, are closely linked to energy markets since ammonia production relies on natural gas as both feedstock and fuel. Phosphate and potash fertilizers are less directly exposed to gas prices but depend on mining activities to extract phosphate rock and potash, and production is concentrated in a small number of economies. Sulphur is considered as a major secondary nutrient and plays a pivotal role in the production of phosphate fertilizers. How has the Gulf conflict affected fertilizer markets? Figure 1 shows that outbound fertilizer-related shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to destinations outside the Persian Gulf came to a standstill once the conflict started - and have remained close to zero since then. A stable resumption of shipments still remains to be seen. Figure 1: Fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have reached a standstill Source: Data Lab WTO Note: Vessels that have disabled automatic identification systems (AIS) are not included. Figure 2 shows that urea prices have almost reverted to pre-war levels, after doubling following the outbreak of the conflict. In April 2026, urea prices rose from around US$ 400 per metric ton (mt) to over US$ 850/mt in April 2026, before falling again to US$ 453/mt in June. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices also increased substantially after the outbreak of the conflict, climbing from approximately US$ 580/mt to around US$ 770/mt. However, these increases still remain below the peaks recorded in 2022 following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, when urea briefly exceeded US$ 900/mt, DAP approached US$ 960/mt, and potash surpassed US$ 1,200/mt. Further price developments may depend on progress implementi
