home wto news 2026 news news item World Trade Report World Trade Report: Trade reform to boost growth; inaction can cost 10% global GDP More World Trade Report Publications Economic research and analysis #WTOPublications "The multilateral t
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"The multilateral trading system has delivered enormous benefits over the past 80 years, helping to create a more integrated and resilient global economy," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. "The evidence shows that around 72% of global merchandise trade still takes place under the WTO's most-favoured-nation terms, while WTO-led trade cooperation has supported economic growth, helped narrow income gaps between developing and advanced economies, and contributed to peace among members."
"The global trading landscape has changed significantly but the founding logic of the system, that all economies are better off cooperating rather than acting unilaterally, remains as relevant today as ever," she said. "WTO members are now engaging actively on reform in full recognition that the status quo is not an option. The multilateral trading system has been repaired and renewed before, and I believe it can be again."
The publication titled, " World Trade Report 2026: A Critical Juncture for the World Trading System ," presents three scenarios for the future of the global trading system. A scenario of a strengthened multilateral framework could raise global GDP by 2.9% and global exports by 17.9% by 2050 relative to the baseline trajectory. This scenario assumes a world where WTO rules are strengthened through broader market-opening commitments, new multilateral disciplines in digital trade and services, wider membership, and a calibrated framework that balances trade openness with security concerns.
For least-developed countries (LDCs), which currently account for less than 1% of world trade, the gains could be particularly significant. Under this scenario, LDCs' GDP is projected to increase by 7.7% due to benefits they would derive from tariff and other trade cost reductions. High-income economies stand to gain substantially in absolute terms, with projected GDP gains of about US$ 1.7 trillion in 2023 dollars, reflecting in particular the benefits of lower trade costs in services.
The two other scenarios cover simulations where multilateral trade rules are eroded: a "geo-fragmented world" (-5.1% and -18.6% declines in GDP and exports respectively), in which trade cooperation is organized around geopolitical blocs; and a "free trade agreement (FTA) world" (-6.9% and -26.9% declines in GDP and exports respectively), in which multilateral cooperation is replaced by a network of FTAs. Comparing these scenarios provides an indication of both the costs of losing the WTO and the potential gains from deeper cooperation.
This implies that the gap between strengthened multilateral cooperation and erosion of the multilateral trading rules is equivalent to an opportunity cost of roughly -5 to -10% of global real GDP, dependin
