WTO | 2026 News items - Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East home wto news 2026 news news item economic research and analysis Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite
WTO | 2026 News items - Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East
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Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East
World merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026 as surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which began in the final month of the quarter. Trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for the next quarter.
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Strait of Hormuz and global trade
The seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade grew 1.9% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and 3.2% compared to the same quarter in the previous year according to recent WTO/UNCTAD data (downloadable from
stats.wto.org
). In value terms, world merchandise trade was up 2% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year in the first quarter (see Chart 1).
The pace of year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026 was particularly impressive considering that trade in the first quarter of 2025 was boosted by the frontloading of imports in North America ahead of expected tariff hikes. Strong trade in electronic components related to AI outweighed the negative effects of the outbreak of war in the Middle East, including disrupted shipments of goods through the Strait of Hormuz and dampened GDP growth in net fuel-importing countries due to higher energy prices. Figures on world trade in AI-enabling goods are not available in quantity terms, but the US dollar value of this trade was up more than 40% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Chart 1: World merchandise trade volume and value, 2023Q1-2026Q1
Index 2023Q1=100
Note: World trade refers to average of exports and imports.
Source: WTO-UNCTAD estimates.
The WTO's most recent trade forecast,
issued in the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report from last March
, predicted 1.9% growth in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2026 under a baseline scenario, less than the 3.2% increase recorded for the first quarter. The report estimated that the Middle East war could shave 0.5 percentage points off world trade growth in a high energy price scenario, but that continued strong AI-related investment could add 0.5 percentage points to growth. These estimates were produced very early in the conflict, with only partial information on the extent of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Considering subsequent developments, WTO economists expect to see larger contractions in Middle East trade flows by the end of the year together with stronger growth in Asia and North America. The global impact, meanwhile, will depend on whether it will be the AI boom or the Middle East conflict that predominates. The next GTOS report, including an updated trade
