By Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist The multilateral trading system has underpinned a nearly 50-fold expansion of world merchandise trade volume and one of the most remarkable periods of economic growth and development in modern history,
By Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist
The multilateral trading system has underpinned a nearly 50-fold expansion of world merchandise trade volume and one of the most remarkable periods of economic growth and development in modern history, yet global trade policy and the WTO are experiencing the most serious and sustained disruptions since the system was created 80 years ago.
To help understand how we arrived at this moment, the World Trade Report 2026 asks some fundamental questions: What is the value of the multilateral trading system embodied by the WTO and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)? What is the economic logic behind its rules? Why is a system that has delivered so much now under strain? And what is at stake as WTO members consider how the institution should adapt?
A few numbers provide a useful starting point.
Today, around 72 per cent of global merchandise trade still takes place under the WTO's most-favoured-nation (MFN) tariff terms, meaning any trade advantage granted by a WTO member to one trading partner must be extended to all other members. Empirical estimates suggest that GATT/WTO membership has increased trade between members by around 140 per cent. Low- and middle-income economies' share of global trade has almost doubled over the past three decades, from 23 per cent in 1995 to 45 per cent in 2024. Digitally delivered services have grown more than fivefold since 2005 and now represent around 55 per cent of global services exports. And simulations by WTO economists presented in the report suggest that the difference between a world of strengthened multilateral cooperation and one in which multilateral cooperation substantially erodes could ultimately amount to 5 to 10 per cent of global real GDP by 2050.
Together, these figures point to three main findings of the report related to the value of the WTO.
The value of the World Trade Organization
First, the WTO has been a powerful driver of trade, growth and prosperity.
The transformation of the world economy since the creation of the GATT in 1947 is extraordinary. The multilateral trading system has expanded from 23 original GATT signatories to 166 WTO members today, accounting for around 98 per cent of global trade. Over the same period, lower and more predictable trade costs have supported a dramatic expansion of international commerce.
This was not simply a matter of tariffs being lowered. Tariffs became more predictable because of members' commitments; non-tariff measures increasingly became subject to common disciplines and transparency requirements; and agreements covering trade in services, intellectual property, product standards and trade facilitation reduced other barriers to international exchange.
The empirical evidence suggests that these commitments mattered. Recent research estimates that GATT/WTO membership increased trade between members by around 140 per cent, with particularly strong gains where economies made substantial policy co
